Think what you want about him. There's one thing
that nobody can deny, whether they're a democrat, a republican, or an
independent... Trump has been successful.
Sure, he started off with an inheritance, but in the course of his career as a real estate developer and investor, Donald Trump has multiplied the several million dollar nest egg he received, into the famous, multi-billion dollar fortune he flaunts today.
That makes for career gains of literally hundreds of thousands of percent — with his net worth rising by as much as a factor of 1000.
How did he do it?
On Tuesday, when Donald Trump defied the polls, the Clinton machine and much of his own party establishment to become president-elect of the United States, he also became the closest thing to a black swan event ever seen in American politics: Statistically unlikely, rationalized only in hindsight—and carrying an impact that could be off the known charts. Even here in Nigeria, my fellow citizens were shell-shocked to say the least. How we one enter obodo oyibo? I feel Wole Soyinka's pain lol.
On one hand, Trump is a pragmatic businessman with a very flexible ideology and a desire to be seen in a positive light; on the other, he’s a ruthless and often improvisational dealmaker with no allegiance to the norms and institutions that set the boundaries for traditional political power. And in 10 weeks he’ll be commander-in-chief. Hmmmm ...
‘Top talent in the GOP (and maybe Democrats) [must] … ensure that Trump doesn’t become isolated or isolate himself.’ ... Ian Bremmer
I, Donald J Trump, do solemnly swear that I will …
The best-case scenario for the United States: President Trump, angry at those who say he has no idea how to be president, appoints experienced, knowledgeable, capable and disciplined people to advise him—and he follows their advice. He dismisses the value of ideology, moves beyond identity politics, embraces a realist view of the world and saves the America First message for a domestic audience. Allies hedge their bets on Trump’s intentions, but personal reassurances from the president himself ensure this is a gradual rather than a sudden process.
The worst-case: Trump tries to keep his promises, but discovers that many are illegal or impossible to implement. He really does ignite a trade war with China, try to deport huge numbers of illegal immigrants, tells Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia to get nuclear weapons, undermines all confidence in the U.S. commitment to NATO at a time when America needs as many allies as possible. He faces pushback even from Republicans. He gets angry. He listens only to slavish loyalists. He looks to protect himself and vindicate his position with public messages that further divide an already divided country. He responds to a terrorist attack on Americans with a series of measures that exacerbate some problems without solving others.
How best to get to the best-case scenario: Top talent in the GOP (and maybe Democrats) honor Trump’s victory by pledging to work in his administration, and they work to ensure that Trump doesn’t become isolated or isolate himself. Trump himself needs to bolster his own confidence by going for some quick policy wins on taxes, infrastructure spending, etc. Trump is encouraged to work for success rather than vindication.
Best of luck, President Trump. Good luck, America.
‘A best-case scenario for Trump would be for him to rationally pursue his policy objectives.’
Francis Fukuyama
A best-case scenario for Trump would be for him to rationally pursue his policy objectives: controlling illegal immigration, trying to renegotiate trade agreements and pursuing a non-interventionist foreign policy.
A worst-case scenario would be for him to use up a lot of political capital at the start of his administration prosecuting Hillary Clinton, suing women who accused him of harassment and changing the libel laws so that he can sue journalists who write critical stories about him. Oh, and also inviting Russian and Chinese aggression by undermining the U.S. alliance system.
And then someone should persuade him that allies are actually useful. Like seriously! This will require having a staff that understands the realities of the exercise of American power internationally, and rebuilding bridges to the foreign policy experts that were so alienated by his pronouncements during the campaign.
... to be continued.
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