'President Trump encounters a foreign policy crisis.’
H.W. Brands is a professor of history at University of Texas at Austin
Worst case: President Trump encounters a foreign policy crisis. Lacking experience, he relies on his gut and makes a bad situation worse. His ego gets involved; he doubles down. The crisis escalates, leading to war (with Russia over the Baltics? China over Taiwan? North Korea? Iran?)
Best case: Americans discover that he didn’t mean much of what he said as a candidate. Forget the wall ... Mexicans are already training on wall climbing skills sef, so that one won't work. Forget a trade war with China. Forget scuttling NAFTA. Forget deporting 11 million immigrants. He recognizes that he needs help and surrounds himself with able advisers. How to avoid the worst and foster the best? I fear this is beyond the control of anyone besides Donald Trump.
‘Building the wall … is not part of a worst-case scenario.’
Alfonso Aquilar
Worst-case scenario: Trump requires undocumented immigrants without criminal records to leave the country. He doesn’t try to deport them, but puts in place measures to encourage self-deportation. Meanwhile, in the process of deporting criminal undocumented immigrants, many who haven’t committed crimes are also accidentally removed, separating families. Building the wall, contrary to what Democrats would like to make Americans believe, is not part of a worst-case scenario since every immigration reform package that has been discussed in the U.S Congress has included fencing. There is money already appropriated by previous Congresses to expand fencing. The Secure Fence Act, which then Senator Clinton voted for, calls for setting up double-layer fencing along 700 miles of the southern border.
Best-case scenario: Trump builds the wall and reduces considerably the illegal entry of foreign nationals, and works with Congress to pass legislation to mandate E-Verify so employers cannot hire undocumented workers and to set up an Entry-Exit system that identifies visa overstayers so they can be removed immediately. And, after these measures are being executed, he also proposes and passes a bill that provides a path to legal status—not citizenship—to undocumented immigrants without criminal records. He got 29 percent of the Latino vote, more than anyone expected, and outperformed Mitt Romney with Latinos. If he is able to deal with the issue constructively and deal with non-criminal undocumented immigrants in a reasonable way, that number will get close to 40 percent or more in the next election.
How does he accomplish the best-case scenario? By ensuring that influential leaders who have strongly supported him and who are trusted by members of Congress who oppose comprehensive immigration reform like Senator Sessions, help him get all of these measures—including the path-to-legal status component—through both chambers, persuading more conservative members that these pieces of legislation are consistent with conservative principles. Trump will also need the support of Latino leaders to sell his immigration agenda to the general pubic and the Latino community.
‘A Trump presidency may give the legislature the chance to restore some of its long-lost luster.’
John McLaughlin
The worst-case scenario would come about in the Trump presidency if he simply turns out to be who he says he is. I, and i'm sure most Nigerians too, hope he lied on some of his promises just to get electoral votes.
Just tick through the list of things he’s promised and you will end up with nuclear weapons spreading, trade wars with countries in Asia and the Western Hemisphere, a Russia freer to meddle in the affairs of neighbors, and allies doubting America’s fidelity to treaty commitments. Yet if he walks away from these positions, he starts to look to his hard core supporters like just another politician who says things only to get elected—leading to still more cynicism among American voters.
The best case is one in which, through some combination of input from his advisers, intelligence briefings, and Trump’s own business-related intuition, he comes to understand the complexities of the current international environment—and, importantly, is able to avoid the decisional paralysis that sometimes results from such an understanding. In other words, he sorts through international issues with the pragmatism you would expect from someone with a previous history of managing a bottom line in a business environment. He has given no public evidence that this is his likely approach, so it’s wait-and-see time, keeping-your-fingers-crossed time ... funny enough, this is kind of synonymous to the much awaited change Nigerians yearned for, we were given promises, kept our fingers crossed and gave President Buhari a benefit of doubt, but then we were sold a spoon of rice for the price of a plate, fell into a recession, which we are still grappling with by the way, and then his party took the blame game to a whole new level by blaming all past democratic governments. Woe betide the United States of America if they face the same fate, cause we gambled that way ... yeah, das how we roll! Not ALSI or NYSE gambling but betting on 8years of your life.
Now back to the real-estate tycoon, the chances of Trump avoiding major errors in security policy would be enhanced if the Congress, and especially the Senate, more effectively played its constitutional role as a check against excessive presidential power, in addition to challenging foolish ideas. With a president-elect who has spoken only in the broadest generalities about his policies, it’s vital that someone in addition to the White House weigh proposals carefully. Congress’ standing with the public is very low, but a Trump presidency may give the legislature the chance to restore some of its long-lost luster.
‘The way for the best-case scenario to happen is for him to appoint largely non-ideological businesspeople to senior positions’
Alec Ross is author of The Industries of the Future
The worst-case scenario: Women lose their reproductive freedom. There are mass deportations. There is a religious test for entry into America. Denying climate change becomes official policy and the U.S exits its agreements. Their international alliances are effectively terminated. The orientation of economic policy-making is rooted in yesterday's industries and does not account for the rise of robotics and intelligence. Trump governs as an autocratic strongman instead of the leader of a single branch of government in a democratic state. The Department of Justice and FBI become Trump's Federal'naya sluzhba bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii (FSB). In short, America's 70 year run as the world's leader effectively ends.
The best-case scenario is that Trump’s zeal to “win” trumps ideology, and he governs only looking to cut deals where he can declare victory. Trade deals are executed with substantial worker protections. China is bullied into dialing back its mass theft of intellectual property. European states increase their contributions to NATO as a condition of participation. Immigration reform is enacted in a way that allows Republicans to declare victory without victimizing hard-working people who have made America their home.
The way for the best-case scenario to happen is for him to appoint largely non-ideological businesspeople to senior positions and for him to keep the neo-fascists who drove much of his campaign on the sidelines. He’ll view the characters of his recent political past like minor characters on The Apprentice that can be cowed or dismissed.
Mr. Trump’s advisers can help him move in that direction by pointing out to him that because of the reputation that he brings to the office, he can make these things happen more easily than someone with a more traditional view. In other words, given the hardline statements he has made about these issues, his supporters would not expect him to make these more reasonable decisions. But if he does, it would be hard for them to turn against him. Just as only Nixon could go to China, or Reagan could propose eliminating all nuclear weapons, only someone like him could make these things happen.
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